Jaguars vs Giants

JT: The Jags are favored? What?

Does Vegas know what they’re talking about? There seems to be a prevailing feeling around the Jacksonville area (and evidently Las Vegas) that this is the week the Jaguars turn it around and put it all together. Jacksonville hasn’t beaten an NFC team (half the league) since the Giants in 2018. Yes, you read that correctly. Of course the Texans game was going to be the Jags coming out party and then last week's Colts game was going to be Jacksonville’s rebound victory. Maybe this whole feeling that the Giants are going to lose at The Bank to JAX this Sunday is nothing more than Jags fans praying that it has to happen at some point, right? I mean, if you keep calling for a dubya, eventually you’ll get one.

Jacksonville, right now, has the offensive weaponry and power to beat the best teams in the NFL. They could have, and arguably should have, beaten the Eagles in Philadelphia. I give you a wide open Jamal Agnew to go up 21-0 on Philly. On the flip side, the Jaguars have the defensive prowess to dominate any offense thrown their way this season (save maybe Mahomes and the Chiefs when they are on their “A” game). The Jags defense has held every team, minus last week, to minimal points and yardage. Even after a horrible showing against the Eagles run game, the Jags are still ranked as one of the top five rush defenses in the league. So what is the problem? The issue seems to be that after week three, the O and the D refuse to show up on the same day. Afraid to steal the other’s thunder perhaps. Maybe they don’t want to cast a shadow on their brethren’s special Sunday. The problem is Jacksonville should be 4-2, could be 5-1, and arguably might be 6-0. Instead the Jacksonville Jaguars currently sit at 2-4 on a three game losing streak. Enter the surprisingly 5-1 New York Football Giants. 

Daniel Jones is playing for his career this season. He was scheduled to be punted out of the big apple at the end of the year. This 5-1 start is breathing new life into the Giants and D-Jones prospects of not having to sell used cars for a living. In addition, Saquon Barkley has resurrected his career as well. I would argue he was about to be traded, maybe even mid-season, to begin the NY rebuilding process. Now, however, he is rushing like he’s a rookie again. Barkley is averaging over 100 yards per game and over 5 yards per carry. Saquon Barkley is the best running back in the entire NFL as I type this column. Maybe Barkley has given a gift to NY, as his trade value has skyrocketed. Surely he can’t keep this up all season, not with his history of falling off a cliff and/or sustaining injuries. Any Jaguars fan worth his/her salt will look at the Giants and tell you that all NY has is a run game. Even Daniel Jones' scrambling/rushing game is better than the Giants passing game. Thus, the Giants strengths play right into the Jaguars strengths, which is the JAX run defense. Fatukasi should be back on the defensive line. At least at this point in the week (Thursday) his recovery points to him suiting up and plugging the holes for the Jags D. So, if Jacksonville can contain Saquon Barkley and Daniel Jones’ pension to run then that would force the Giants to beat them through the air. If you asked me two weeks ago, I would have told you that no team on the Jags schedule (minus Mahomes and the Chiefs) could beat Jacksonville through the air. Then last week happened and Matty Ice presented Daniel Jones with a blueprint on how to do it. So who knows what’s going to happen. I certainly don’t. JaguarsTalk has been wrong about Jacksonville for the past three weeks. Certainly I am no longer qualified to spew my opinions, yet here I am.

We can dive into statistics and throw numbers around. Talk about DVOA and OVOA and all of the other difficult to compute, let alone understand, acronyms that the analytics groups have devised after watching Moneyball and thinking, hey if Seth Rogan’s chubby friend can do it then maybe I can hang out with Brad Pitt too. But this game feels more like an issue of pride to us. This feels more like a must win, a buckle down, put your head down and go to work, no excuses, get it done and win the game, type of contest. A matter of pride more than statistical analysis. This game feels more like that anomaly that always occurs when a team you never expect to win blows away the competition. Except…the Jaguars are favored to win by three, and that makes zero sense to anyone who has ever watched football. Throw away the fact that the 2-4 Jags are favored to beat the 5-1 Giants because Jacksonville views itself as the underdog this Sunday. Our first prognostication of this column is that these underdogs will be let off the leash against the Giants. The JAX defense is a pack of motivated hunter/killers, especially after being brutally embarrassed last week by the Colts. Even Trevor Lawrence said in a presser this week that they are the most confident 2-4 team in the league and that they know they should be 5-1 maybe 6-0 right now. That is exactly what JaguarsTalk believes. 

If Fatukasi returns to the defensive line for this Sunday’s game the Jaguars have a very good shot at stunting Saquon Barkley’s numbers. If Mike Caldwell can solve the defenses problems with the dink and dunk, crossing route, short passing game that picked them apart last Sunday in Indy. If Travon Walker can stop taking bone-headed penalties and start making plays that he hasn’t made since game one against Washington. If the defensive back room can get past the poor play of Shaquil Griffin and his possible back injury this week, which might result in Tre Herndon and Darious Williams taking the field. If all of this happens in the Jaguars favor then Jacksonville can win this game and win it big. 

One of the biggest issues that may cause some problems for Jacksonville is the injury to Jamal Agnew. Christian Kirk has practiced punt returns this week just in case Agnew can’t go. Jacksonville will miss Agnew on special teams but more so as a receiver. Even though he was rarely used as a receiver this year, when he was out there he dominated with touchdowns and was able to get wide open for what could have been touchdowns. Agnew, though sparingly used on the offense, will be greatly missed this week if his injury prevents him from playing. Maybe Tim (Him) Jones can get more play. That guy was a beast on his one catch last week against the Colts. It was all Indianapolis could do to keep him out of the endzone. That boy is a gamer. He has the edge and drive. Maybe Agnew’s absence will lead to Timmy's chance to shine.

Unless you haven’t been watching the NFL or paying attention to the AFC South this year, you would know that Jacksonville has a very good and efficient offense. Hell, Trevor Lawrence captained an 18 play, 10 minute, fourth quarter, go ahead drive on the road last week. You would also know that Jacksonville’s defense, minus last week's Matty Ice debacle, is very solid and can shut down some of the best in the business. The only thing that the Jacksonville Jaguars need to do is put it all together in the same week. There are a few keys to winning this game against NY.

1) Run the offense exactly as it was run last week. I know the defenses are different and thus you can’t run the exact same offense, that is not what we mean. What we mean is that the offense needs to be schemed to take advantage of Martindale’s NY defense that is flying around and making plays. Exploit their D in order to orchestrate more 18 play, 10 minute drives. Run Etienne more. Most importantly Jacksonville needs to pick up the blitz which is coming. The Giants D blitzes more than 50% of the time. The Jags need to control the clock and exhaust the Giants’ defense to win this game.

2) The Jaguars defense needs to shadow Daniel Jones. The Giants have horrible receivers. When Daniel Jones scrambles is when he becomes dangerous. Doug Pederson was quoted as saying, and we wholeheartedly agree, Daniel Jones is a much better runner than people give him credit for. Jacksonville needs to shut that down. If your defense is playing well enough to create a scramble you can’t let that opposing QB run for yardage or the first down.

3) Stop Saquon. This is paramount. Saquon Barkley is the engine of the NY Giants offense. If he can, at the very least, be contained then the Giants can be beaten. Fatukasi seems to be the key to stopping the run. When Fatukasi went out during the Philadelphia game, the Eagles ran all over the Jags. Then Dameon Pierce, running back for the Houston Texans, continued that trend, taking advantage of Fatukasi’s absence. Finally last week, Fatukasi’s pass rush was missed while Matt Ryan picked apart the JAX linebackers and secondary. Thus, Fatukasi’s return is key to the Jags success this weekend against the NY Giants. 

I’m not worried about Devin Lloyd’s poor performance against Indianapolis as I believe that he and Mike Caldwell will make the necessary adjustments to make sure Lloyd isn’t embarrassed like that again. In addition, the Giants just don’t have the receiving prowess that the Colts do. No Michael Pittman Jr. and no Alec Pierce. This game is a stop the run game for the defense and a stop the blitz game for the offense. If Caldwell’s group can do that and Press Taylor’s group can orchestrate long, clock-eating drives, then the Jaguars walk away from The Bank with a dub. The one thing I do not want to write or talk about after this game is a lack of ability, on the coaches part, to make in-game or halftime adjustments. Recognize that a player just doesn’t have their stuff that day and yank ‘em. Maybe the Jags need to hire an MLB pitching coach to stroll the sideline during NFL games. Those guys can tell when someone just isn’t bringing their A-game. Dougie P. can call a timeout and our MLB rep can visit the mound, take the football, pat the player on the butt as he jogs off the field and make the call to the bullpen for Ricky ‘Wild Thing’ Vaughn to toe the rubber. Problem solved, Jags win more games.

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