Jaguars @ Chiefs

JT: The Forgettable First Quarter and the KC Crew

The Jacksonville Jaguars continued their sleepwalk through the first half of the NFL season for all of 15 minutes last Sunday when they allowed the Las Vegas Raiders to go up 17-0 at The Bank on the First Coast. Then the alarm sounded. Not that pre-programmed one that comes on the iPhone right out of the box. No, we are talking the “Eye of the Tiger” alarm. The full Rocky IV training montage medley is what woke the Jaguars last Sunday. Both the offense and the defense of Jacksonville traveled to Russia during halftime, found a barn in the middle of an icy tundra and started doing hanging sit ups from a second story loft, stopping only to outrun a 1980s Mercedes sedan up a snow covered mountain. Jacksonville shut down the career first half that Davante Adams and Derek Carr were having by completely shutting out the Raiders after a late first half field goal.

Doug Pederson, when down 17-0, did not abandon the run game. In fact, he fed Travis Etienne the rock more than in any other game this season. ETN rewarded Douglas with two touchdowns and the third straight game of 100+ yards rushing. Not to be outdown Trevor Lawrence had himself a day. He not only completed 80% of his passes but he ran the ball efficiently and, dare I say, hard. He was lowering his shoulder and encouraging contact. In the latest JaguarsTalk JagsCast Podcast we talk about how T-Law called out LVR linebacker, Perriman, for making a good tackle. Lawrence, after picking up a nice six yard gain on a QB run, jumped up and jawed with Perriman. “Hey fifty two. I play better when you hit me fifty-two. I like it. I’m a little messed up.” It was excellent to see T-Law getting dirty and talking trash. Knocking out Ivan Drago changes a man. Plenty of Alpha in the JAX QB1, Ryan Fitzmagic. If you still don’t see it, move the beard out of the way and YouTube the Mic’d up sequence from this game. Trevor is a true Alpha QB1. He’s going to be Tony the Tiger certified next season (Grrrr-8). Watch out AFC South, T-Law’s a little messed up.

The Jags defense buckled down and shut out the Raiders entire offense, most notably Davante Adams, who looked like he was scrimmaging a high school powder puff team in the first quarter. Andre was getting his Cisco handed to him by the Carr/Adams connection until he was injured and replaced by Andrew Dewey Wingard out of Wyoming. Dewey shined. He was the injection of psycho-aggressive play that the Jacksonville defense needed. Dewey is sometimes erratic, sometimes sloppy, but all the time aggressive, all the time fired-up and all the time bringing the thunder. Wingard might not have the athleticism of a starter but he has the passion to change the tune of a defense, and that is exactly what he achieved against the Raiders last Saturday. As we all know by now (man this part of the column is really late), the Jaguars came back from the second biggest deficit in their history to beat LVR and go to 3-6 on the season. When Trevor took the game winning knee the Jags had 403 total yards to LVRs 321. 235 passing yards to LVRs 248 (almost all in the first half), and 168 rushing yards to LVRs 73. So not only was Davante Adams put out to pasture in the last three quarters of the game, but Josh Jacobs was put on blocks wondering to which chop shop his new rims were sold. The Jaguars put together a solid offensive AND defensive three quarters for the first time since week three against the Los Angeles Chargers. Speaking of defense can we talk about Dawuane Smoot. My man is quietly making a name for himself as the best pass rusher on the Jags. With that in mind, should Smoot see more time on the turf against the mostly passing offense of the Kansas City Chiefs this Sunday? Talk about a smooth segue.

JAX travels to MO to tackle the Kansas City Chiefs at arguably the most difficult NFL stadium in which to play. Arrowhead is the NFLs version of Kyle Field. The 12th man is truly a force to be reckoned with in the home of Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce. This Jacksonville/KC game has the potential to be one of the most exciting NFL games of the week if not the entire JAX season. How can I even type those words? Well, hear me out. If the same Jaguars team that showed up in weeks 2,3 and 9 come to play in the land of Reid this week, then the Chiefs have a shot of losing a third game this season.

The Chiefs defense is mediocre this year. Kids these days, who can’t be bothered with speaking complete words, would call them “mid.” They’re a little “sus.” I don’t “ship” them (I think I took it too far). Over the past four games KC has allowed opposing rushers to scamper for 125+ yards per game. Well, it just so happens that in ETN, Jacksonville has one of the most explosive and best running backs in the NFL. I wonder who wins that match-up? In addition, it would seem that Trevor Lawrence’s maturation process is humming along right before our very eyes. He has been tucking and running the ball when things look bleak. He has been throwing it away, audibling at the line, etc…He just seems to be making better and better decisions. If he can put together a good game like he has so many times this season (I say “so many times” because if you erase the self inflicted turnovers, he’s been pretty damn good), coupled with ETN continuing his string of 100+ yard games, throupled with the defense playing like they were built to play, then JAX covers the spread, and dare I say, wins the game. While the Jacksonville offense needs to worry about not beating themselves, it’s the Jaguars defense that has to worry about one of the best offenses in the NFL. 

Patrick Mahomes is the best quarterback in the league. Travis Kelce is the best tight end in the league. Finally, Andy Reid is one of the best offensive minded coaches in the league. Mike Caldwell and the Jacksonville defense has their work cut out for them. So what does one do to contain this unstoppable, half-billion dollar man? Well, what you don’t do is blitz him. Mahomes is so dangerous when he adlibs. He can throw from any angle, to any receiver, into any coverage (even State Farm’s…let it sink in). Caldwell should have spied Daniel Jones when they played the Giants. If Mikey does not have a spy on Mahomes then he needs his head examined. Next, the Jaguars need to slow down Travis Kelce. If I have to listen to him talk to his brother about beating Jacksonville on the next “New Heights” podcast, then I will…well I’ll suffer through it, because it is one of the best podcasts out there these days. Kelce is also one of the best tight ends out there so Mike Caldwell needs to double team him. Make JuJu Smith-Schuster beat you (he is also very good and having a resurgent career with KC). Speedster Mecole Hardman will sit this one out with an ab injury but that will give KC the chance to deploy newly added Kadarius Toney. Toney is the guy that Urban Meyer wanted to draft in the first round in 2021, but since NY took him just before the Jaguars next pick, JAX was “stuck” with Travis Etienne Jr. (thank god). At least Meyer was able to accidentally do one good thing during his tenure. Look, the bottom line is that the run game of the Chiefs is “mid” and “sus” but their pass game is “on fleek.”

The Jags defense has their work cut out for them. If they stick to their assignments and stay disciplined, Mahomes and Kelce will get theirs eventually, but the Jags D will give Trevor Lawrence and ETN the opportunity to take advantage of the average KC D and possibly, just maybe, pull out a dub. I don’t envy the JAX defense’s job this week but I’m pleased that Rayshawn Jenkins will be playing, Andrew Wingard is win-tipsy, Tyson Campbell is pro-bowl caliber and that Dawuane Smoot is a hungry sack machine. The only thing I can say is stay in your lanes, keep your assignments and don’t get discouraged. Your job is to contain because you certainly can’t stop this Chiefs’ offense. All season JaguarsTalk has preached that the offense just needs to be efficient and let the defense win games. This week is the opposite. The defense needs to be efficient and the offense needs to win the game. As everyone knows the best way to slow down Mahomes is to keep him off the field. Dougy P. and T-Law need to orchestrate long, clock eating Jacksonville drives. If they can do that, then the JAX D can rest and has their best shot at containing Mahomes and Kelce.

So, it all comes down to this. The KC Chiefs are 9.5 point favorites. The Jacksonville Jaguars will certainly (I mean as certain as I can be) cover that spread. If the Jags turn it over in the red zone, as they seem to enjoy doing, then the Chiefs win this one 27-23. If the Jaguars do not have a red zone turnover and instead put points on the board, then JAX wins this game 23-20. We’ve kind of hedged our bets here, so let us know what you think in the comment section below.